Hey there,
The Romans gave luck a face. Fortuna, relentlessly spinning her wheel. Up or down, no reason given. Your choices had no say in it.
Most people still think this way. Luck happens to you. It shows up or it doesn’t.
Some things really are random. But most of the time, you have more control over luck than you think. Luck is buildable. And anything buildable can be modeled.
Jason Roberts coined “luck surface area” back in 2010 and shaped it as an equation: L = D × T, where L is luck, D is doing and T is telling.
I see it as a broader tool, one that works across any domain. So I stole his idea and built on it, giving it a new shape:
Luck = frequency of exposure × quality of contexts × readiness to connect
Exposure. How often you show up where things happen.
Contexts. Which places you show up in, and how good those places are for what you’re after. This is the variable most versions skip. A hundred wrong places still multiply to nothing.
Readiness. What you do when the moment lands.
Other three-part versions of this formula exist. The ones I’ve seen fold the place into the action. I’m giving the place a well-earned seat in the equation.
Three variables. Multiply them. One zero and the whole thing collapses. Fortuna wins.
See It in Action
Take dating apps. Imagine someone wants a real long-term relationship, so they treat the whole thing like a part-time job. Nights, weekends, lunch breaks. Any empty moment becomes swipe territory, as if love were a numbers game they could win by playing harder.
Exposure is maxed out. But fifty matches are useless if every conversation has the emotional range of a tired hamster.
Contexts are a mixed bag. The apps have everyone, which sounds great until you remember that some of the most interesting people are at a pottery class, blissfully offline.
But the phone has other plans. The pull is always there.
Then readiness enters the picture and quietly ruins everything. Fifty matches. Fifty openings. Fifty conversations that die somewhere between “hey” and “how’s your week?”
The fix follows the formula. Swipe less, pick better contexts, maybe even contexts without wifi. And learn to keep a conversation alive past the weather (there are great books on this, and a whole world to practice). One good conversation beats fifty dead threads.
The same math applies far from dating. Take a business idea. Someone builds something they believe in and starts pitching it to their circle. Friends, family, the same five people who nod politely.
Exposure looks fine. They talk about it every chance they get.
Contexts are the trap. Their circle just isn’t where their customers live. Pitching a B2B tool at Sunday lunch multiplies to nothing, no matter how supportive their mother is.
Finding the right places is trial and error. You share the idea in new spots, watch where it sparks something, and follow the signal. The wrong places teach you where the right ones are.
Readiness decides the rest. They finally land in a place full of ideal customers, and the pitch comes out as ten minutes about features. Nobody hears the value. Right place, wrong words, still zero.
The fix follows the formula. Keep showing up, keep testing places until the idea resonates, and learn to communicate the value so clearly that when the right person asks what you do, the answer opens a door.
Two different situations. Same formula. And both fixable with agency and an experimental mindset.
I hope you get lucky next time. Maybe at a pottery class.
Stay strong,
Gus